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,In a late May teleconference to about 100,000 Communist Party cadres, premier Li Keqiang made his position clear – the economy was headed for a hard landing and municipals must put their precious fiscal dollars to help stabilise it. But Li’s urging would have no bite unless president Xi Jinping(pic), China’s most powerful politician in decades, expressed similar sentiments in public town squares.

A company is in distress. Its financials are in shatters. Its brand value is being questioned. The chief executive officer has a broad blueprint to revamp and he has the support of some board members. But for a complete re-branding, he needs the approval of the chairman first.

This is a process that distressed assets managers are all too familiar with. It’s also a good framework for investors to use when they think about China.

In a late May teleconference to about 100,000 Communist Party cadres, premier Li Keqiang made his position clear – the economy was headed for a hard landing and municipals must put their precious fiscal dollars to help stabilise it.

But Li’s urging would have no bite unless president Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful politician in decades, expressed similar sentiments in public town squares.

Xi was seen by the outside world to have made two serious mistakes this year. First, his persistence with Covid-zero – and the resulting citywide lockdowns – sent the domestic economy into free fall.

Second, his alliance with Russia’s Vladimir Putin alienated China’s two largest exports buyers: the United States and the European Union.

In recent days, Xi looked as if he may be adjusting his hawkish stance – or at least that’s what some investors are betting on.

On Covid-zero, there were two watershed moments. During a trip to Sichuan province in early-June, the president told local officials to “effectively” keep a balance between virus containment and economic stability.

He also said he was “very concerned” with young college hopefuls finding work. An estimated record 10.8 million will be graduating into a weak labour market over the next few weeks.

At the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday, the president reiterated the call that China would “strive to meet the economic and social targets for this year”.

China had earlier announced plans for growth of “around 5.5%”, a number that analysts said is out of reach. There were also intriguing signals on the Russia front.

On June 14, it was announced that Le Yucheng, a top Russian-speaking diplomat, had been appointed deputy director of the National Radio and Television Administration.

The decision to remove the pro-Russian Le was seen as a way for Beijing to distance itself from Moscow, whose invasion of Ukraine has been both widely condemned and disastrous for the global economy.

These steps set the stock market on fire. In the past, tech companies were big employers of fresh college graduates – were Xi’s comments a sign that the year-long regulatory crackdown was near the end? To hit the 5.5% growth target, would China double down fiscal stimulus?

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    (2022-09-15 00:24:12) 1#

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